Spain to exit from bank bailout in January
Spain has announced it is to exit its EU/IMF bank bailout programme.
Madrid borrowed 41 billion euros last year to rescue many of its banks crippled by bad loans after the collapse of a property and construction bubble.
The country has now met the conditions of its aid programme and its banking sector has “significantly improved” according to euro zone finance ministers.
It follows an announcement by Ireland that it will also exit the bailout next month.
At a news conference in Brussels ministers welcomed Spain’s decision, hailing it a success for the Eurogroup.
Head of Eurogroup, Jeroen Disjsselboem, said: “These two countries are an example of how a programme can work, and should work. So I think that’s a good sign. Of course at the outstart of the whole crisis management of the euro zone this was all new, it was all ‘terra incognita’, it all had to be worked out, and we’ve now had two good experiences, successful experiences, and I think that’s very important.”
Copyright © 2014 euronews
(euronews, 16 Saturday November 2013 The Roman)
Showing posts with label Ireland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ireland. Show all posts
Wednesday, 12 February 2014
Sunday, 9 February 2014
Ireland too strong for Wales in Dublin
Ireland too strong for Wales in Dublin
Dublin (AFP)
Ireland ended Welsh dreams of a record third Six Nations title in a row, with a clinical display in Dublin's Lansdowne Road on Saturday.
Warren Gatland's men simply never got close to the hosts, who tactically outmanoeuvred the giants in red, and boasted raw strength and aggression to complete the rout.
Ireland have not begun a Six Nations with back-to-back victories since the Grand Slam year of 2009, and this comprehensive result will have them dreaming in Dublin.
Jonny Sexton's boot dominated the game, but the performances of Peter O'Mahony, Paul O'Connell, Andrew Trimble and Rob Kearney will give England boss Stuart Lancaster plenty to ponder ahead of the mammoth clash in Twickenham in two week's time.
Ireland were already in confident mood following their 28-6 opening day win over Scotland, reflected in Joe Schmidt's decision to make just two changes to the starting line-up.
Ireland captain O’Connell, who withdrew on the morning of the Scotland game with a chest infection, returned, while Gordon D’Arcy resumed his record breaking midfield partnership with Brian O'Driscoll, making what's likely to be his penultimate Ireland appearance on home soil.
Wales were boosted by the return to fitness of their own skipper, Sam Warburton, who was one of three changes in the forward line, alongside Gethin Jenkins and Andrew Coombs.
Ireland were the only team to beat Wales in 11 Six Nations clashes, but the hype surrounding this game was not about the theme of Welsh revenge, but an altogether different grudge match, pitting the 'coldhearted' Lions boss Gatland v 'scorned' centre O'Driscoll and Ireland's eight Lions v Wales' 12.
But the real edge to this game was that the winner could automatically become title favourites.
Perhaps it was that possibility that led to a scrappy first half that was largely devoid of rhythm or skill, but the home fans weren't complaining with their 13-0 lead at the break.
It wasn't quite the 27 point half-time lead they enjoyed last year, but it was merited, with O'Connell, O'Mahony and Trimble outstanding for the boys in green.
Ireland weathered a strong start by Wales, before Sexton racked up six points with two straightforward penalties before the 20th minute.
In between, the entire stadium took a deep breath as O'Driscoll was downed by a bone shaking tackled by Scott Williams, but the centre is going to go out on his terms this season and made it to the final whistle.
The ball was often in the air, with Sexton clearly intent on turning the Welsh on their heels, and it was one of those kicks that led to the opening try.
The execution was training ground perfection, with Devin Toner collecting the lineout and feeding Chris Henry, who was bundled over the line for his first international try.
Sexton added the extras, and then notched a key penalty after the break to put more than two converted tries between the sides.
Halfpenny finally got Wales on the scoreboard with a penalty on 56 minutes, but Sexton responded four minutes later to restore the 16 point gap.
Wales pounded the Irish defence, only to see Rhodri Jones's 'try' disallowed for a double movement in the build up, and the visitor's comeback efforts drifted away as the rain showers did.
Paddy Jackson, on the field just four minutes, did what Wales couldn't do in 80, and touched down on 78 to rub salt into the Welsh wounds.
(Agence France-Presse, 8 Saturday February 2014 The Roman)
Monday, 3 February 2014
Ireland boss set for first Six Nations 'final' against Scotland
Ireland boss set for first Six Nations 'final' against Scotland
Dublin (AFP)
Joe Schmidt was preparing himself for "five finals" ahead of his first Six Nations game in charge of Ireland, against Scotland in Dublin on Sunday.
The New Zealand-born former Leinster boss was appointed as Declan Kidney's successor last year, and lost two of three November Tests, going down 15-32 to Australia, before agonisingly losing 22-24 to the world champion All Blacks with the last kick of an epic game.
Schmidt could have made history by leading his adopted nation to its first ever victory over his homeland in over a century of trying, but Ireland couldn't back up a stunning first 40 minutes and ultimately came up short once more.
But he knows there will be far less sympathy if Ireland slip up in the Six Nations, a tournament he's enjoyed only as a spectator before now.
"I'm still learning in this job," Schmidt said at the squad's training base near Dublin on Friday.
"It (the Six Nations) is a competition of five games but it's five finals and that probably makes it slightly different to the Autumn where we did feel maybe we had to have a look at a few guys.
"Whereas this is the Six Nations, this is the major tournament that we play and we can't afford to lose our first game.
"It's pivotal for us to get a good start. You only get one shot at your first game and you've got to give it your best shot."
Of the XV that started against New Zealand, Schmidt is without Tommy Bowe and Sean O'Brien through injury.
Schmidt also caused some mild surprise by deciding Gordon D'Arcy's stomach illness at the start of this week was sufficient reason for him to be left out, even though the veteran midfielder was one of the best players on the pitch against New Zealand.
D'Arcy has been replaced at inside centre by Ulster's Luke Marshall, one of four players from the northern province to make the starting lineup, a reflection of their unbeaten status in this season's European Cup.
Much of the rest of the team picks itself, with star centre Brian O'Driscoll set for a landmark 129th cap that will see him overtake retired outside-half Ronan O'Gara as Ireland's most-capped player.
This is also O'Driscoll's final season of rugby before retirement, and he's expressed his determination to 'empty the tank' in the pursuit of only a second Championship title in 14 attempts.
Ireland captain Paul O'Connell agreed with O'Driscoll's assertion that the country's 'golden generation', so successful at club level, have underachieved in the Test arena.
But the experienced lock said the present side might be the most talented group of Ireland players he's been involved with.
"We have an excellent squad that is equally good and possibly better (than the Grand Slam winning side of 2009," O'Connell claimed.
"But until we go on and do something you can't say that.
"We need all the good things we did against New Zealand in terms of our accuracy and detail, but that doggedness that was there in 2009 needs to be there as well."
Indeed it was that very quality of grim determination that did so much to see Scotland to an upset 12-8 win in last year's corresponding clash with the Irish at Murrayfield.
But Scotland coach Scott Johnson is wants his side to expand their game.
And with the return of full-back Stuart Hogg, who missed the November Tests with a wrist injury, in a back three also featuring New Zealand-born wing Sean Maitland and veteran flyer Sean Lamont, Johnson is convinced his side can pose a real attacking threat at Lansdowne Road.
"We can go the length with that back three," said Johnson.
"For a seasoned campaigner Sean Lamont has some legs still. His form over the last 24 months for us has been outstanding," the Australian added
"Like something in my wine cabinet he's certainly getting better with age."
(Agence France-Presse, 2 Sunday February 2014 The Roman)
Tuesday, 14 January 2014
U2 in the 71st Annual Golden Globes
U2 in the 71st Annual Golden Globes
[caption id="attachment_11106" align="alignnone" width="400"]
En or
Bono (g) et Larry Mullen Jr. du groupe U2 posent avec leur récompense pour le titre "Ordinary Love", sacré meilleure chanson pour le film "Mandela, un long chemin vers la liberté", lors de la 71e cérémonie des Golden Globes, à Beverly Hills.
Golden
Bono (L) and Larry Mullen Jr. of U2 pose with their award for the song "Ordinary Love", sacred best song for the film "Mandela, a long way toward freedom," at the 71st Annual Golden Globes in Beverly Hills.
(AFP - Robyn Beck)
(Agence France-Presse, 14 Tuesday January 2014 The Roman)
(Edited and Translated: R.S.F. toshiki speed news press, Agence France-Presse, 15 Wednesday January 2014 The Roman)
Monday, 16 December 2013
BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2013: Andy Murray, champion of a great sporting year
BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2013: Andy Murray, champion of a great sporting year
Tennis player proves the greatest star in an almighty scramble for Sports Personality award that reflects a return to Britain’s Olympic glory
[caption id="attachment_10769" align="alignnone" width="400"]
This afternoon, before hosting the BBC’s Sports Personality of the Year show, Gabby Logan tweeted a picture of the set in Leeds.
And my, it looked impressive, suggesting that despite all available evidence there was some money left in the BBC’s kitty after sending out half the staff to cover Nelson Mandela’s passing.
A ravishing swirl of steel and glass, the centrepiece was a scaffolding structure resembling a giant water-wheel.
On its shelves sat some of the great trophies of sport.
The irony is these are trophies whose victory rites are these days largely broadcast elsewhere.
It is a paradox of our television times that the less sport the BBC has to show, the more lavish its annual sporting awards ceremony has become.
When it was first shown in 1954, when the corporation was the nation’s sole broadcaster, the BBC Sports Review of the Year ran for just 45 minutes, with the revelation of the leading individual tagged on to the end.
This year, when everyone from Sky through to Channel 4 to BT has cherry-picked off the BBC’s live portfolio, the 60th anniversary show ran for around three hours.
It was a ceremony filled with artful short films of the contenders shot in pixelated slo-mo, an event tailored for The X Factor generation, so bedecked in cutesy production flourishes Lady Gaga might consider it a tad over the top.
But even if the evening rarely passes off without manufactured bombast, ritual sycophancy and self-inflicted embarrassment, there is one thing about the BBC award: it still matters.
This is a piece of silverware every British sportsperson wants on their mantelpiece.
This is, moreover, an award that perfectly reflects the times.
The great peaks of British sporting history are writ large in the list of previous winners.
Bobby Moore won it in 1966, Ian Botham in 1981, Jonny Wilkinson in 2003 and Sir Bradley Wiggins in 2012.
But when the sport has been rubbish, when the year is characterised by a plucky Brit trudging home in a brave seventh place, then invariably the Sports Personality suffers.
In those times the show is dismissed as an embarrassment, an anachronism, a joke.
And the winner is hurriedly forgotten.
Not this time.
In brilliant refutation of the idea that 2012’s Olympic-driven glory could never be matched, this year the gong had been pursued with an almighty scramble of excellence.
What a year of British effort was reflected in those going for the honours.
There was AP McCoy, the jockey with his 4,000 winners; Justin Rose triumphing in the US Open golf; the cyclist Chris Froome picking up Sir Brad’s baton in the Tour; Mo Farah doing a clean sweep at the world athletics championships and Sir Ben Ainslie, the sailor who single-handedly turned around the America’s Cup.
If any of them had been doing what they did this year in 1997, the winner Greg Rusedski, whose principal claim was losing in the US Open tennis final, would have been lucky to get an invitation.
Yet they all went home empty-handed this time.
There was only ever one candidate for the supreme honour.
In the year he became the first Briton in three quarters of a century to win the men’s singles competition at Wimbledon, Andy Murray’s achievement was of such resonance it was always certain to see off even that stellar list of contenders.
Not that he was there to receive his invitation to the pantheon in person.
Murray did not win Wimbledon by curtailing his relentlessly masochistic winter training schedule.
Never mind the enormous commercial benefit in turning up in Leeds, he remained in his camp in Florida.
Across the years when he has been in contention, he has politely declined the invitation to break his training with a transatlantic flight and has stayed in the warmth.
Last year, things got toe-curlingly awkward when he was obliged to present himself with the runners-up gong after Lennox Lewis, who was supposed to do the honours, missed his cue.
Murray continues the award’s astonishing pattern.
The last six winners have been from, in order, England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Isle of Man and England.
This is truly a British competition, a symbol of a united sporting nation.
In a great year, Murray is our greatest star.
(The Telegraph, 15 Sunday December 2013 The Roman)
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Friday, 15 November 2013
News: Ireland exits bailout
Monday, 23 September 2013
Can Greece rescue plan succeed?
Can Greece rescue plan succeed?
Greeks are carefully watching Germany's election hoping a new government in Berlin will forgive some of its debt.
Athens, Greece - Germany’s election means something to almost everyone in Europe.
To the Greek street, it signals the point when the government ought to pluck up the courage and ask the Eurozone to forgive a big chunk of its onerous debt, which now stands at 174 percent of its GDP.
Four years of austerity have succeeded in eliminating a $49bn budget deficit even while the economy shrank - a painful process akin to playing the piano while someone breaks your fingers.
Having done this, Greece finds that its economy has shrunk so much, it is barely able to service its debt.
Interest last year cost $16bn, placing the country in what one economist calls a "debt bondage".
The debt also acts as a barrier to growth, creating a vicious cycle.
"No-one wants to invest in a country which is uncertain, which has lost confidence, which is shrinking," says former finance minister Nikos Christodoulakis.
Apart from the risk, there is the reality of high taxes.
Angela Merkel’s government has lent the Greeks money on the principle that German taxpayers will never have to pay for the European periphery’s debts, so it seems that the Greeks will be disappointed in their quest.
The problem is that most Greek economists no longer see the country’s rescue package as viable without serious intervention.
"It is highly doubtful whether this rate of tax extraction from a moribund economy can be maintained," says Athens University economist Yanis Varoufakis.
He is admittedly one of the Greek rescue plan’s most severe critics, and has predicted that the euro will ultimately meet its Waterloo in Greece.
Varoufakis is not alone, however.
"You need fresh money in this country," says Gikas Hardouvelis, a proponent of the Greek rescue.
As chief economic advisor to Prime Minister Loukas Papademos, he played a leading role in negotiating Greece’s second facilitation loan last year.
"Otherwise we’re going to lose our youth, the country is going to shrink and we’re going to be taken over by foreigners."
Competing visions
Merkel’s opponent in Germany’s election on Sunday election, Social Democrat leader Peer Steinbrueck, espouses the idea of a massive investment package for the European periphery – a second Marshall Plan; but his party is trailing the ruling CDU in the polls by about 10 points.
Greece was essentially bankrupt when it lost the ability to borrow affordably from markets in early 2010.
It accepted some $300bn in facilitation loans from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund - the notorious ‘troika’ - who feared a collapse of the euro as a currency should Greece be allowed to fail like a massive Lehman Brothers.
In return, Greece had to commit to painful spending cuts.
The result of austerity is that the economy has lost 26 percent of its size and is still shrinking.
Unemployment is the highest in Europe at 27.9 percent, and twice that for the young.
Wages have fallen sharply for those who still work - by about 23 percent in the private sector and as much as twice that in the public sector.
Your Prime Minister Antonis Samaras put a brave face on things in an annual economy speech earlier this month.
"Greece is turning a new leaf. Its economy, after six years of recession, is turning a new leaf," he said, predicting recovery in 2014.
The government is claiming to have finally reached a budget surplus before debt servicing is factored in.
It also sees a lower-than-predicted recession in the second quarter (-3.8 percent instead of -4.6 percent) as heralding the beginning of an upturn to growth.
The government has been quick to grasp at straws before.
In late spring, Samaras foresaw unemployment stabilising.
In January his finance minister, Yannis Stournaras, foresaw a return to growth by the end of the year.
Both predictions were confounded.
Could this time be different?
Greek economists think not.
They are deeply sceptical about the primary surplus, attributing it to the government withholding payments to private sector suppliers and Value Added Tax returns to businesses, and allowing the social security deficit to widen.
They converge on the view that the recession is slowly lifting, but that this merely leaves the economy moribund.
"A starving person sheds a large portion of his weight in the first few weeks. As death approaches, the rate of weight diminution declines to zero," says Varoufakis dryly.
When $140bn of Greek debt was written off in March 2012, there was an optimistic camp, which felt that Greece’s finances were going to be sustainable.
That camp is now deserted because financial markets still won’t touch Greece.
At the very least, analysts expect Greece to be given another reduction in interest (it has already fallen from five percent to 3.1 percent) and an extension on the maturity of its loans.
But this is merely to prevent a collapse in instalments.
Growth is a more elusive goal.
The Greek banking system cannot finance it because it is itself bankrupted by the level of nonperforming loans.
Two years ago the government brought in the financial consultants Blackrock to audit the banking system.
"Blackrock found that about 30 percent of loans were nonperforming in 2011. Now it might well find twice that proportion," says Christoforos Sardelis, who created Greece’s Public Debt Management Agency in 2000, and now works at the National Bank of Greece.
Five ways out
Austerity has led to such a massive sapping of public and private wealth that the recovery has to come from outside, most Greek economists say.
Their ideas fall into two categories – those that reduce debt and those that would bypass it to nurture growth.
“
Land is the easiest thing to do [swap for investment] take a rocky island for 100 years... I don't see any other solution.
“
Gikas Hardouvelis, economist,
"I think the eventual solution for the Greek debt problem will be some form of debt-equity swap," suggests Hardouvelis.
"We owe at this stage over $288bn to our European partners, and everybody is asking how to get rid of that wolf that scares investors. The best way to do it is to say, ‘let’s swap debt for equity, and come in and invest’. Land is the easiest thing to do… take a rocky island for 100 years... I don’t see any other solution."
The idea of mortgaging sovereign territory to Germans might be politically controversial, but it kills two birds with one stone, generating revenue and reducing debt at the same time.
Christodoulakis suggests a different kind of swap between Greeks and Germans.
Germany coerced two loans out of the Bank of Greece in 1943, during the Nazi occupation.
These were never repaid, and Christodoulakis estimates their current value with interest at over $21bn - roughly, he says, Germany’s contribution to Greece’s first facilitation loan in 2010.
"I think that a very fair compensation and settlement of the issue would be to count one for the other… It would reduce the amount of Greek debt by 8-10 percent of GDP."
This idea enjoys overwhelming popular support in Greece, but has been ruled out by Germany.
Sardelis focuses on growth.
He believes that a "risk transfer" to an internationally recognised body would unlock liquidity to the south.
"The European Investment Bank or the European Central Bank or some other institution needs to take on the role of loan guarantor. That would enable [banks] to issue loans to the peripheral economies on looser terms," he says.
"When trust breaks down someone intervenes and restores it. This isn’t happening.”
A path to growth?
Left-of-centre economists focus on how Greece might regenerate itself without a wealth transfer from the outside.
Savvas Robolis, who heads the Labour Institute, believes that Greece could generate half a point of GDP and seven thousand jobs just by restoring the minimum wage to 751 euros ($1014) a month.
A controversial law in February 2012 lowered it to 586 euros despite protests from the Greek business community that taxes and state bureaucracy were a far more pressing concern.
Unemployment has continued to rise, suggesting that the measure was far from successful.
Varoufakis doesn’t think Greece can recover if it attempts to service its debt while it remains in recession.
"Greek debt will remain sky high while Greece’s GDP will continue to shrink," he says.
He believes a new contract between Greece and the troika should make Greece’s repayment schedule "dependent only on Greece’s GDP growth rate".
Greece’s left wing opposition has embraced this suspension of interest payments; but Hardouvelis believes it would "strain relations with Greece’s Eurozone partners" to the point of getting it kicked out of the EU.
Greece is not alone in its financial asphyxiation.
The single currency exposed weaknesses in the competitiveness of southern European economies and helped channel investments to the north.
Panayotis Petrakis, an economist at Athens University, describes this unequal structure as "the new normal".
He divides the Eurozone into "a productive centre, which concentrates capital from the periphery, which will have 27-30 percent unemployment."
But Greece is singled out by the length and stubbornness of its illness.
Portugal, Spain and Ireland have begun to see a pickup in their exports, leading to a fresh flow of money to pay off debts.
Greece’s pickup has been much slower – an indication of the investor-unfriendliness it has to fix at home, and this is the nub of the problem.
"Suppose for twenty years we have no problem with the debt," says Hardouvelis.
Are we going to fix a country that generates the income that, when the time comes, enables the future rich Greeks to pay back the debt? … The question always comes back to us."
(Source: Al Jazeera)
(Al Jazeera, 21 Saturday September 2013 The Roman)
Greeks are carefully watching Germany's election hoping a new government in Berlin will forgive some of its debt.
Athens, Greece - Germany’s election means something to almost everyone in Europe.
To the Greek street, it signals the point when the government ought to pluck up the courage and ask the Eurozone to forgive a big chunk of its onerous debt, which now stands at 174 percent of its GDP.
Four years of austerity have succeeded in eliminating a $49bn budget deficit even while the economy shrank - a painful process akin to playing the piano while someone breaks your fingers.
Having done this, Greece finds that its economy has shrunk so much, it is barely able to service its debt.
Interest last year cost $16bn, placing the country in what one economist calls a "debt bondage".
The debt also acts as a barrier to growth, creating a vicious cycle.
"No-one wants to invest in a country which is uncertain, which has lost confidence, which is shrinking," says former finance minister Nikos Christodoulakis.
Apart from the risk, there is the reality of high taxes.
Angela Merkel’s government has lent the Greeks money on the principle that German taxpayers will never have to pay for the European periphery’s debts, so it seems that the Greeks will be disappointed in their quest.
The problem is that most Greek economists no longer see the country’s rescue package as viable without serious intervention.
"It is highly doubtful whether this rate of tax extraction from a moribund economy can be maintained," says Athens University economist Yanis Varoufakis.
He is admittedly one of the Greek rescue plan’s most severe critics, and has predicted that the euro will ultimately meet its Waterloo in Greece.
Varoufakis is not alone, however.
"You need fresh money in this country," says Gikas Hardouvelis, a proponent of the Greek rescue.
As chief economic advisor to Prime Minister Loukas Papademos, he played a leading role in negotiating Greece’s second facilitation loan last year.
"Otherwise we’re going to lose our youth, the country is going to shrink and we’re going to be taken over by foreigners."
Competing visions
Merkel’s opponent in Germany’s election on Sunday election, Social Democrat leader Peer Steinbrueck, espouses the idea of a massive investment package for the European periphery – a second Marshall Plan; but his party is trailing the ruling CDU in the polls by about 10 points.
Greece was essentially bankrupt when it lost the ability to borrow affordably from markets in early 2010.
It accepted some $300bn in facilitation loans from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund - the notorious ‘troika’ - who feared a collapse of the euro as a currency should Greece be allowed to fail like a massive Lehman Brothers.
In return, Greece had to commit to painful spending cuts.
The result of austerity is that the economy has lost 26 percent of its size and is still shrinking.
Unemployment is the highest in Europe at 27.9 percent, and twice that for the young.
Wages have fallen sharply for those who still work - by about 23 percent in the private sector and as much as twice that in the public sector.
Your Prime Minister Antonis Samaras put a brave face on things in an annual economy speech earlier this month.
"Greece is turning a new leaf. Its economy, after six years of recession, is turning a new leaf," he said, predicting recovery in 2014.
The government is claiming to have finally reached a budget surplus before debt servicing is factored in.
It also sees a lower-than-predicted recession in the second quarter (-3.8 percent instead of -4.6 percent) as heralding the beginning of an upturn to growth.
The government has been quick to grasp at straws before.
In late spring, Samaras foresaw unemployment stabilising.
In January his finance minister, Yannis Stournaras, foresaw a return to growth by the end of the year.
Both predictions were confounded.
Could this time be different?
Greek economists think not.
They are deeply sceptical about the primary surplus, attributing it to the government withholding payments to private sector suppliers and Value Added Tax returns to businesses, and allowing the social security deficit to widen.
They converge on the view that the recession is slowly lifting, but that this merely leaves the economy moribund.
"A starving person sheds a large portion of his weight in the first few weeks. As death approaches, the rate of weight diminution declines to zero," says Varoufakis dryly.
When $140bn of Greek debt was written off in March 2012, there was an optimistic camp, which felt that Greece’s finances were going to be sustainable.
That camp is now deserted because financial markets still won’t touch Greece.
At the very least, analysts expect Greece to be given another reduction in interest (it has already fallen from five percent to 3.1 percent) and an extension on the maturity of its loans.
But this is merely to prevent a collapse in instalments.
Growth is a more elusive goal.
The Greek banking system cannot finance it because it is itself bankrupted by the level of nonperforming loans.
Two years ago the government brought in the financial consultants Blackrock to audit the banking system.
"Blackrock found that about 30 percent of loans were nonperforming in 2011. Now it might well find twice that proportion," says Christoforos Sardelis, who created Greece’s Public Debt Management Agency in 2000, and now works at the National Bank of Greece.
Five ways out
Austerity has led to such a massive sapping of public and private wealth that the recovery has to come from outside, most Greek economists say.
Their ideas fall into two categories – those that reduce debt and those that would bypass it to nurture growth.
“
Land is the easiest thing to do [swap for investment] take a rocky island for 100 years... I don't see any other solution.
“
Gikas Hardouvelis, economist,
"I think the eventual solution for the Greek debt problem will be some form of debt-equity swap," suggests Hardouvelis.
"We owe at this stage over $288bn to our European partners, and everybody is asking how to get rid of that wolf that scares investors. The best way to do it is to say, ‘let’s swap debt for equity, and come in and invest’. Land is the easiest thing to do… take a rocky island for 100 years... I don’t see any other solution."
The idea of mortgaging sovereign territory to Germans might be politically controversial, but it kills two birds with one stone, generating revenue and reducing debt at the same time.
Christodoulakis suggests a different kind of swap between Greeks and Germans.
Germany coerced two loans out of the Bank of Greece in 1943, during the Nazi occupation.
These were never repaid, and Christodoulakis estimates their current value with interest at over $21bn - roughly, he says, Germany’s contribution to Greece’s first facilitation loan in 2010.
"I think that a very fair compensation and settlement of the issue would be to count one for the other… It would reduce the amount of Greek debt by 8-10 percent of GDP."
This idea enjoys overwhelming popular support in Greece, but has been ruled out by Germany.
Sardelis focuses on growth.
He believes that a "risk transfer" to an internationally recognised body would unlock liquidity to the south.
"The European Investment Bank or the European Central Bank or some other institution needs to take on the role of loan guarantor. That would enable [banks] to issue loans to the peripheral economies on looser terms," he says.
"When trust breaks down someone intervenes and restores it. This isn’t happening.”
A path to growth?
Left-of-centre economists focus on how Greece might regenerate itself without a wealth transfer from the outside.
Savvas Robolis, who heads the Labour Institute, believes that Greece could generate half a point of GDP and seven thousand jobs just by restoring the minimum wage to 751 euros ($1014) a month.
A controversial law in February 2012 lowered it to 586 euros despite protests from the Greek business community that taxes and state bureaucracy were a far more pressing concern.
Unemployment has continued to rise, suggesting that the measure was far from successful.
Varoufakis doesn’t think Greece can recover if it attempts to service its debt while it remains in recession.
"Greek debt will remain sky high while Greece’s GDP will continue to shrink," he says.
He believes a new contract between Greece and the troika should make Greece’s repayment schedule "dependent only on Greece’s GDP growth rate".
Greece’s left wing opposition has embraced this suspension of interest payments; but Hardouvelis believes it would "strain relations with Greece’s Eurozone partners" to the point of getting it kicked out of the EU.
Greece is not alone in its financial asphyxiation.
The single currency exposed weaknesses in the competitiveness of southern European economies and helped channel investments to the north.
Panayotis Petrakis, an economist at Athens University, describes this unequal structure as "the new normal".
He divides the Eurozone into "a productive centre, which concentrates capital from the periphery, which will have 27-30 percent unemployment."
But Greece is singled out by the length and stubbornness of its illness.
Portugal, Spain and Ireland have begun to see a pickup in their exports, leading to a fresh flow of money to pay off debts.
Greece’s pickup has been much slower – an indication of the investor-unfriendliness it has to fix at home, and this is the nub of the problem.
"Suppose for twenty years we have no problem with the debt," says Hardouvelis.
Are we going to fix a country that generates the income that, when the time comes, enables the future rich Greeks to pay back the debt? … The question always comes back to us."
(Source: Al Jazeera)
(Al Jazeera, 21 Saturday September 2013 The Roman)
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Germany,
Government,
Greece,
Ireland,
Politics,
Portugal,
Real economy,
Spain,
The EU,
The Kingdom of Greece,
The Kingdom of Spain
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